Sunday, February 20, 2011

Chopper Euro crisis has accelerated the global asset bubble burst

 Chopper: Euro crisis has accelerated the global asset bubble burst
international community has tried all the efforts to save the euro can not be successful, because the major interest groups will not easily give up their own interests, but had to go and a violation of economic laws and rely on re-create the political interests of the credibility of the currency.
short selling in the dollar the euro now, and had no power of resistance, from early December 2009 the 1.5147 high, straight run to 1.2345 yuan, just only 5 months . The euro's next support level is 1.1462 yuan, without effective support, it can not be far away from a 1 to 1.
ordinary people of China and the U.S. dollar against the euro, the exchange rate between the change in the wealth flows turn and, may not be practical experience. But we are all on the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate changes should be familiar with. In 1997, 100 Hong Kong dollars convertible RMB 108, and now 100 Hong Kong dollars converted only 87 yuan. This change in the exchange rate between to illustrate a truth, the people of Hong Kong returned to the motherland, the central government will not fulfill its commitments in Hong Kong and the mainland as the tax levy, but this does not mean that the people of Hong Kong people, the government will not contribute to the continent.
to Hong Kong people to The central government also quietly making a contribution to the best way is to adjust the exchange rate, which is actually on the mainland and Hong Kong investment and trade, people on the mainland to the Hong Kong Government's annual tax contribution of 18.7%. This change in wealth flow, that the public part of the wealth created each year, so quietly handed over to the Central People's Government.
euro and the dollar is actually kind of relationship. in 60 trillion GDP, , a dominance of the United States in 2009 to 14.8 trillion to 13.72 trillion euro zone came after the United States, and is likely to overtake the United States pressed the United States. euro surpass the United States is actually very simple, as long as the euro done against the U.S. dollar 1 to 1.6 is enough. so many of the world's wealth will flow to Europe.
Americans will certainly not do it. Greek crisis is only a primer, even without the Greek crisis, there will be the Icelandic crisis, or Germany crisis and the crisis in the euro zone countries. This crisis is unavoidable. Of course, the United States is a more established democratic countries, has called for world peace, not to mention and Europe have been allies, not to use military means to open plunder. how to do? that the only money to fight a war to maintain the flow of global wealth continues to change the U.S. course.
either war or currency of military war, the United States can not lose. only in the balance of interests among the wealth of Europe once back will have an impact on the rest of the world, which have a positive impact on the United States is also negative. from the trend point of view, the euro crisis, the flow of global wealth three major changes will occur:
a major change is to change the world trade patterns. exchange rate changes, so the new economy of trade profitable countries in Europe, and the deficit. China in the year 3, 4 two months, both in Europe and Japan trade deficit, is an example. Subsequently, the so-called golden BRIC countries and the United States will begin to seek more large-scale trade cooperation, support the U.S. low inflation and high growth, of course, support the dollar's strength. It is expected that in future global trade, U.S. trade volume will increase by 10 % or more, will boost U.S. economic growth exceeded 4%.
second big change is the global asset price bubble began to burst. Since the second half of 2008, the credit crisis intensified, the dollar index fell 74 points, the currency crisis began appears. With the dollar falling, the global bulk asset prices soaring international crude oil prices soaring from $ 36 to $ 83, copper and aluminum nickel zinc tin by a variety of subjects under the guise of spikes; is that when the price of gold against currency reserves pioneer of inflation, rose from $ 920 to $ 1,250; various agricultural prices are rising. However, the rising price bubbles are transported to the base such as China's new economy countries. U.S. dollar, the asset price bubble will burst after another.
third asset bubble burst in the BRIC countries passed their prime, the first burst housing bubble in China. Russia, China, India and Brazil have scenery, and now one bad.: ; BRIC , the bulk of many asset prices slid more than 50% will be faced with a drastic shrinkage of wealth. China housing bubble first burst, the country slid 30% of the overall price will be the bubble problem of urban to fallen 50%   80%.
non-US national assets has shrunk dramatically, the dollar started to keep a strong medium-term, the dollar index will soon break 90 points and a record high. China to the flow of global wealth in this round of the conversion of a difference, has been very difficult. global The bulk of assets in China in terms of what to buy what is up, because demand in China, but also because of China's resources are exhausted overdraft. China's natural disaster crisis will be even worse, once the impact on food production, social unrest is inevitable.

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