The only stock market rally of 2009 will be driven by further expansion in global liquidity

 The only stock market rally of 2009 will be driven by the global liquidity V-bounce. and as a rebound in 2009, the reasons for China's stock market.
in my opinion, than the digestive capacity to digest excess inventory much more difficult, as demand has passed, even if stocks run out, demand for raw materials restore the height is much lower than normal times. The so-called V-type but after digging a little hook back.
frankly hope the Chinese economy in 2009 short-term bounce, hoping to take the lead in the Chinese economy in the world economic recovery, in reality and logic are not supported. but it does not mean that in 2009 China's stock market had a chance. 2009 to support global assets (the Chinese stock market) only will be driven by a rebound in global liquidity ; further expansion room MBS. innovative and effective long-term interest rates held down, especially mortgage rates, we see that the last two months, the U.S. high-quality real estate mortgage-backed securities (Prime RMBS) and U.S. Treasury yields have dropped sharply, and promote U.S. 30-year mortgage rates bank mortgage dropped significantly. long-term interest rates fall, at least the potential future buyers of default reset provides an opportunity to refinance to make future payments will be lower interest rates fixed interest rate to be locked, so the U.S. is expected to stabilize the rising default rates,UGG bailey button, massive collapse of financial institutions reduce risk, counterparty trading risk reduction, financial institutions, credit activities basic to restore hope to slowly.
quantitative easing monetary policy essentially means that the Fed is ready to give up so that the remaining debt of the world subscribe to.
from the current situation, the pressure of Obama's first year is really too much promise to cut tax, a substantial increase in health care, education, infrastructure expenditure commitments of Iraq before 2011 also can not withdraw military and financial aid if the change of direction for the purchase of shares, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) of the definition of financial expenditure is charged to all financial expenditures. the latest estimates, the U.S. treasury bonds in 2009 will reach 1.8 days, the amount of 2 trillion U.S. dollars. who already holds 2.5 trillion debt of the remaining stock of the United States eat the world under the 2 trillion a year, He Qinan. other words put it, by extracting money market and other countries to solve this credit crisis seems to be impossible.
So, a lot of printing to be the only option. After all, the debt crisis is a classic - tight crisis, solving the debt problem only two, namely inflation, the second is the debt to bankruptcy. For the global distribution rights of the United States in terms of hard currency, printing money to a global cost-sharing is undoubtedly the rational choice. so, since the second half of 2008 strong in the medium term the dollar is likely to reverse deflation for the capital markets means that the expected lift.
Once the United States started the printing press, this time could mean Buffett is the ultimate winner. Not long ago, around the world There was laughing at the investment genius to see Zou Leyan Masterpieces. Obviously, this has long been respected for the elderly or the nature of study and understanding of the American economy.
the financial sector liquidity black hole a case of a crisis, there must be than when they release the liquidity is much more difficult. before the economy has not significantly heat up, any monetary authorities are not to act rashly, proactive and timely recovery of mobility, who would dare to bear the guilt of deflation it? so once the liquidity of such released once the financial institutions to really start to work, and instantly be monstrous floods. deflation and inflation expectations are expected to occur or may change overnight. deflation to inflation expectations of the switch will lead to sharp fluctuations in asset prices may be.
Therefore, at some point mid-cash or is no longer safe, and zero-interest government bonds has made a serious bubble. concerns about inflation will drive the liquid back to the commodity market and the stock market,UGG shoes, the global asset price revaluation or China will promote the passive stock market rally.
because of strong deflationary expectations, rational investors abandoned assets, cash is king; and once into the high inflation expectations, asset against inflation has become the best choice. this time enterprise performance factors are often diluted,bailey UGG boots, firms may not have any change (even worse),UGGs, but for the fear of inflation concerns over deterioration of performance, liquidity, valuation levels are naturally driving to a new level. For example, say, result from deflation extreme risk aversion makes investors were 1.5 times the PB can not be accepted, but once investors began to become more and more hair care bill, the assets of interest to more and more concentrated, perhaps inadvertently flood of liquidity makes the world accepted 2 times a PB, no change, the price was blown up 30%.
However, after all, can only rebound rebound rebound in commodity prices will further worsen by the resources, environment and market Chinese-made multiple constraints profitability in 2009 after the Chinese economy may enter a period of economic downturn and inflationary pressures exist in the